ALL EYES ON JOHN MAINE
The Maine Man is on the mound for the first night game at Citi Field. Last year, the Mets lost the opening series to the San Diego Padres. Tonight, Maine will attempt to help the Mets win the first series of the season. Facing ace Ricky Nolasco, Maine will look to tame the Marlins- a team he has dominated over the past couple years and thus has gotten the call over Pelfrey or Perez to pitch tonight. The pressure is on. We have heard and seen little from and about John throughout spring training, and his last outing at Port St. Lucie was a disaster. So, with factors pointing in all directions, tonight its all left in the hands of John Maine.
Facinating Accuscore Simulation: "This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Both starters have a relatively low chance of having a quality start. John Maine has a 45% chance of a QS and Ricky Nolasco a 47% chance. If John Maine has a quality start the Mets has a 65% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2 and he has a 17% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Mets win 51%. If Ricky Nolasco has a quality start the Marlins has a 65% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 7.9 and he has a 59% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Marlins win 56%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the New York Mets is David Wright who averaged 1.98 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 31% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Mets have a 57% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Florida Marlins is Hanley Ramirez who averaged 2.47 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 43% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Marlins have a 68% chance of winning."
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